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implications for orientation, not just generally, how it affects the economy, but also in the middle east, something that has to be thought about. there's also the question of the future of the european union which will have an impact, again, not only on the economy, but could also have an impact in terms of what happens in the middle east. we could reserve some of the questions for the q&a, but what i'd like to focus on are a few of the key issues i think are most immediate and prominent. starting with iran. i think 2013 will be a decisive year. for people with long memories, say say, well, gee, people talk about iran for a long time, and every year it's supposed to be the decisive year. why do i say this year? two reasons. one, i think, actually, the impact of sanctions is profound. for the first time, it's truly profound in the case of iran. we have the supreme leader, two weeks ago, referring to the sanctions being brutal, his words. the sanctions are brutal. this is someone whose said on an ongoing basis, looked, we lived with sanctions since the beginning of the islamic republic, th
>> policymakers to talk about the global economy for the next 30 minutes. we have a wide terrain to spend. to the left is robert zellich, former president of the world bank. austin, former chairman of the economic advisers under prawsm, and michael who spoke last night briefly, and he's the chief economic adviser for george hw or bush and now a stanford economic professor. i want to start out with the united states. for people in the room understand the president as well as us and golsby. people ask what is going to come of this fiscal cliff. i'd like to look through the fiscal cliff asking you to describe to us how do you see the budget negotiations playing out over the next six months? >> well, feels to me like they almost had a deal last year. the principle bottleneck last year was not that the president was unwilling to offer cuts. it was that there was a group of republicans in the house who wouldn't go for the revenue, and i think that's still the bottleneck now. you probably saw the article this morning from hubbard, what boehner said, and i take from this collection some
were people who were still dissatisfied with the economy, with obama's performance, but they were not sold on romney saying that was the undecided voter. well, a week later, those people were saying they were for romney, and undecided were people who used to be for obama, but they didn't like his performance in the debate so they were undecided. it's a myth of saying who was undecided. i think we're going to analyze it, analyze it as persuadable voters. that's who it is, is not in the core of either party to be persuaded. the way we, as reporters, analyze undecided voters is ridiculous. number four, independents are no longer the swing group. i mean, look, romney won independents. in ski battleground states, carried the independent vote and lost. indidn'ts, the way they -- independents, the way they define themselves now in the era of strong partisanship lean slightly republican. if they split even or if democrats win it, it's a very good year for democrats. it's the mirror image of moderates. mote rads lean democratic, but they are a key swing vote. to me, look at those who call
the program on china and latin america. china is also going through añ&r transition, and also china's economy's extremely important for many latin american countries increasingly so, and she's going to share thoughts about what that relationship might look like. we're delighted to have margaret with us as realm. she just came back from about a month in china m i think we'll have some fresh perspective and insight about the situation there, and, obviously, people are increasingly interested in latin america, what's happening in china, and the united states, the two very important players. let begin with a few comments before turning it8/á#i to any colleagues and them opening it up to all of you. last april, the dialogue produced a policy report that reflected the analysis and recommendations of the members of the inter-american dialogue, and we talk about area opportunities in the areas of trade and energy and other global affairs that really should be taken advantage of by the united states moving forward, but we emphasized as well there were three issues that were on an old agenda that had
to be changed in economy, it's going to be because of the healthy relation with india. if they are going to deal with a society that is very fractured along religious and ethnic lines gets going to be because groups and civil society's ethnic groups businesses other people reach out side of pakistan's borders. my short answer is i think their stock and i think the way to unstick them everyone realizes is not going to be, it's not reasonable to expect the current political structure has a vision to reform. >> we will move through some questions, shifting gears a little bit. peter i would like to bring us back to something that ambassador munter was saying about the centrality of the past couple of years old counterterrorism in the u.s. strategy and we are all familiar with some of them much heralded achievements that the united states has made on the counterterror front. i would be curious to get to questions and for you. one would be, are things, heavily compresses much in counterterrorism and particular in pakistan and afghanistan as it appears and is widely reported and claimed by the obama ad
Search Results 0 to 4 of about 5